| 基于暴雨过程强度的贵州省雨涝危险性评估* |
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| 作者姓名： | 龙俐 张东海 李霄 李忠燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省气候中心,贵州省气候中心,贵州省气候中心,贵州省气候中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用贵州省84个国家级气象观测站1991-2020年逐日、逐时降水量资料,以暴雨过程中持续天数、累积降水量、最大日降水量、最大小时降水量4个评价指标为基础,得到年雨涝指数和最大降水量阈值,再结合地形、水系及地质灾害等影响,对贵州省雨涝危险性进行评估和区划。结果表明：(1)贵州省大部分地区年雨涝指数为中等以上的等级,其中安顺市大部、黔西南州东部达到极强；(2)雨涝危险性程度具有西南部和东北部高、西北部低的分布特点,高危险性等级虽然占比小,但分布较为集中连片,易产生区域性影响；(3)针对不同时间长度,不同重现期的可能最大降水量阈值进行了分析,对预警服务及决策有一定的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨过程强度 年雨涝指数 雨涝危险性指数 评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/8/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/11/18 0:00:00 |
Risk assessment of rain and waterlogging in Guizhou Province Based on the intensity of Rainstorm Process |
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| Authors: | longli Zhang Donghai Li Xiao and Li Zhongyan |
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| Institution: | Guizhou Climate Center,Guizhou Climate Center,Guizhou Climate Center,Guizhou Climate Center |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily and hourly precipitation data of 84 national meteorological observation stations in Guizhou Province from 1991 to 2020, and based on the four evaluation indexes of continuous days, cumulative precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and maximum hourly precipitation in the process of rainstorm, the annual flood index and maximum precipitation threshold are obtained. Combined with the impact of topography, water system and geological disasters, the flood risk of Guizhou Province is evaluated and divided. The results show that: (1) the annual rain and waterlogging index in most areas of Guizhou Province is above the middle level, and most of Anshun City and the east of Southwest Guizhou are extremely strong; (2) The risk degree of rain and waterlogging has the distribution characteristics of high in the southwest and northeast and low in the northwest. Although the high risk level accounts for a small proportion, the distribution is concentrated and continuous, and it is easy to produce regional impact; (3) The possible maximum precipitation thresholds for different time lengths and different return periods are analyzed, which has certain reference value for early warning service and decision-making. |
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| Keywords: | Intensity of rainstorm process Annual flood index Flood risk index assessment |
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