| IAP／CAS的短期气候距平数值预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁重光,李旭.IAP／CAS的短期气候距平数值预测研究[J].气象科学,2000,21(3):326-338. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁重光 李旭 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理所,北京,100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院重大项目，国家自然科学基金，国家科委基础研究重大关键项目，LASG的大力支
持 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文介绍了中国科学院在气物理研究所（ＩＡＰ／ＣＡＳ）近十年来在短期气候距平数值预测研究方面的一些进展情况，首先介绍了近十年来准业务跨季度汛期降水预测的结果及评分，对预测的物理基础、预测可能性、集合预测方法、订正的必要性与方案进行了初步探讨，提出了我们的看法，发现预测中可能出现多平衡态，可以应用来改进不同区域的预测，并对些方法所作预测的特点、与经验半经验统计的相互配合、不同地区预测效果的差异、如何选
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| 关 键 词： | 短期气候距平 数值预测 集合预测 |
SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALY NUMERICAL PREDICTION RESEARCH IN IAP/CAS |
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| Yuan Chongguang,Li Xu,Wang Huijun,Bi Xunqiang,Lin Zhaohui.SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALY NUMERICAL PREDICTION RESEARCH IN IAP/CAS[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2000,21(3):326-338. |
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| Authors: | Yuan Chongguang Li Xu Wang Huijun Bi Xunqiang Lin Zhaohui |
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| Abstract: | The summary of our numerical experiment on short-term climatic anomaly prediction in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chiness Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) in the last decade are introduced in the paper.We present the result and grade of a semi-operational extraseasonal summer Monsoon precipitation prediction in the last ten years,and make an initiatory inquisition on the physical bases of extraseasonal prediction,predictability,practical methods of ensemble prediction,necessity and schemes of the correction to GCMs output.We found that multiple equilibrium is possible to appear in some cases of experiments,and can be used to improve the prediction of different regions.Some discussions on the characteristics of our prediction schemes,the concerted research with statistical-empirical predictors,the difference in predictability over different regions,the choice of models,the predicted period of validity,the predicted objects,and the forecast score are also included. |
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| Keywords: | Short term climatic anomally Numerical prediction Ensemble prediction |
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