| 盐岩储气库运营期失效概率分析研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾超,李朋,张强勇,李术才.盐岩储气库运营期失效概率分析研究[J].岩土力学,2012,33(11):3352-3358. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾超 李朋 张强勇 李术才 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东大学 土建与水利学院，济南 250061 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)，山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着能源地下储备的日益迫切需求，越来越多的盐岩地下储库开始投入使用。盐岩地下储库因其良好的使用功能，愈发被世界各国所采用。因此，对盐岩储气库运营期的安全稳定性研究具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。运营期间，储库腔体将受到随时间变化的储气内压的作用，同时，客观存在的诸多不确定性因素不可避免地使盐岩地下储库具有一定的风险性，而由于这种不确定性很难采用确定性方法对其进行研究。以金坛盐岩地下储气库为例，基于有限元软件ANSYS，建立储气库运营期腔体内压-时间历程曲线，对储气库长期流变进行了瞬态力学分析，并基于随机力学分析方法，以体积收缩作为风险控制指标，利用ANSYS-PDS得出储气库在整个运营期失效概率的变化规律。计算表明，在周期性变化的储气内压作用下，腔体位移呈波浪线形不断增长，但增幅逐渐降低；同时，储气库失效概率呈现先慢速增长再快速增长最后逐渐趋于稳定的变化规律。探讨了注采气速率对储气库稳定性的影响，适当降低注采速率可抑制腔体收缩，有利于提高储气库的稳定性。对类似盐岩储库运营期风险分析与评估具有借鉴意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 盐岩储气库 长期流变 数值模拟 失效概率 注采气速率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-09-27 |
Failure probability research for salt rock gas storages during operation period |
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| JIA Chao
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LI Peng
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ZHANG Qiang-yong
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LI Shu-cai.Failure probability research for salt rock gas storages during operation period[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2012,33(11):3352-3358. |
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| Authors: | JIA Chao LI Peng ZHANG Qiang-yong LI Shu-cai |
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| Institution: | School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China |
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| Abstract: | With the increasingly urgent demand of underground energy reserves, more and more underground salt rock gas storages are put into use. Underground salt rock gas storages are adopted around the world, because of their good features. Therefore, it is very significant to study the safety and stability of underground salt rock gas storage in operation period. During operation period, gas storage cavity is under time-varying pressure of the inner gas. At the same time, the storage has some risks because of objective uncertainties and it is difficult to study the storage risks with deterministic method. Jintan underground salt rock gas storage is taken as an example. The time-varying pressure curve is created and the transient mechanics method is used to study the long-term rheology of the underground salt rock gas storage. Based on stochastic mechanism method, the failure probability variation of the underground salt rock gas storage during operation period is obtained by ANSYS-PDS with taking the volumetric shrinkage as the control criterion. Calculations show that the displacement of the cavity increases in a wavelike form under the time-varying pressure of the inner gas and the amplification reduces gradually. The failure probability shows this variation: it grows slowly first and then grows fast gradually and it slows down and is stabilized finally. The influence of velocity of gas recovery and injection on the gas storage stability is discussed. Reducing the velocity of gas recovery and injection can suppress the volumetric shrinkage and improve the stability of gas storage. It is meaningful to the risk analysis and assessment of other similar underground salt rock gas storages. |
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| Keywords: | salt rock gas storage long-term rheology numerical simulation failure probability velocity of gas recovery and injection |
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