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Change-point detection of long-duration extreme precipitation and the effect on hydrologic design: a case study of south Taiwan |
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| Authors: | Hone-Jay Chu Tsung-Yi Pan Jun-Jih Liou |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Geomatics, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan 2. Center for Weather Climate and Disaster Research, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 3. National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan |
| Abstract: | An increase in the global temperature has intensified the hydrologic cycle, which affects the temporal patterns of precipitation. This study analyzed a long-term annual dataset measuring maximum precipitation in south Taiwan, and identified the change point of the time series using the cumulative sum technique. The result reveals a clear change point of the annual maximum rainfall for 24-h durations in 2004 at most observations. The average 24-h-duration precipitation depth in the study area increased by 27 and 36% for 20-year and 100-year extreme events compared with and without data after 2004, respectively. The long-duration precipitation depth demonstrates a significant positive trend following the change point. Furthermore, this study assesses the changes of hydrologic design while precipitation data are updated annually. The designed 20- and 100-year storm will decrease abruptly when the observed data are subsequently updated until 2004. Because of climate change, this issue is worthy of attention in hydrologic designs. |
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