| 伴随系统及非线性优化方法在REM模式可预报性研究中的实际个例应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王铁,穆穆.伴随系统及非线性优化方法在REM模式可预报性研究中的实际个例应用[J].大气科学,2007,31(5):987-998. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王铁 穆穆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029;中国人民解放军理工大学气象学院,南京,211101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目40233029、40221503,，中国科学院知识创新工程方向项目KZCX2-208,，大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室开放课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用REM模式的伴随系统和非线性优化方法，通过三个实际天气个例，对REM模式的可预报性问题进行了研究。结果表明，REM模式在给定的实际应用中可接受的预报误差范围内，对三个天气个例都具有预报能力。对于个例一，利用现有的常规报文初始观测场，进行简单的插值处理（最优插值等），REM数值模式就可以得到比较满意的预报结果； 对于个例二和个例三，对现有的报文初始观测场进行处理（如四维变分资料同化）后，REM模式在给定的误差允许范围内，对这两个天气个例仍得到满意的预报。研究结果不仅对改进数值模式具有一定的指导意义，而且对如何改进数值模式的初值问题，特别是在中尺度天气预报中如何改进具有一定的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | REM模式 伴随系统 非线性优化 可预报性 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-9895（2007）05-0987-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-232006-06-15 |
The Application of the Adjoint Modeling System and Nonlinear Optimization Method in the Study of Predictability of the REM with Observational Data |
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| WANG Tie and MU Mu.The Application of the Adjoint Modeling System and Nonlinear Optimization Method in the Study of Predictability of the REM with Observational Data[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2007,31(5):987-998. |
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| Authors: | WANG Tie and MU Mu |
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| Institution: | 1. National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; 2. InstituteofMeteorology, PLAUniversityofScienceandTechnology, Nanjing 211101 |
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| Abstract: | For a meso-scale numerical model,how to evaluate the error in the numerical model and how to evaluate the error in the initial data? In order to perform the best prediction to a given synoptic system,what kind of initial data is suited to the numerical model? Those are the key problems in the study of the predictability.Recent studies indicate that the nonlinear optimization method,which uses the numerical model's adjoint modeling system,is a useful way to evaluate the error in the model and the initial data.With the nonlinear optimization method and the adjoint modeling system of the Regional Eta-coordinate Model(REM),a study of the predictability of REM is conducted using the daily observational data in this paper.Three numerical tests are performed,the results suggest that the REM can give an acceptable forecast with the allowed forecast errors in the three synoptic tests.The first test suggests that the REM can give a satisfactory simulation just using the initial data by interpolation(such as,the optimal interpolation method) from daily station data.The second and the third tests suggest that the REM can give a satisfactory simulation by using improved initial data(via the four-dimendional variational data assimilation method). |
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| Keywords: | the Regional Eta-coordinate Model(REM) adjoint modeling system nonlinear optimization predictability |
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