| 新疆不同季节降水气候分区及变化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 辛渝,毛炜峄,李元鹏,张新,卢戈,博力健.新疆不同季节降水气候分区及变化趋势[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(5):948-959. |
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| 作者姓名： | 辛渝 毛炜峄 李元鹏 张新 卢戈 博力健 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆气象局,气候中心,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830002
2. 新疆博州气象局,新疆,博乐,833400 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划，中国气象局气候变化专项项目，新疆太阳能资源评估业务系统建设共同资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用新疆88个测站1961—2006年逐日降水量资料,采用EOF（主成分分析）、REOF（旋转主成分分析）、线性趋势、kendall-τ检验以及累积距平、t检验、信噪比相结合等方法,对新疆四季降水量的空间特征、变化趋势以及突变时间等进行了对比诊断分析\.结果表明,新疆四季降水量EOF的前3个载荷向量场均表现为全疆一致的降水偏多或偏少型、南北疆反变化的南多（少）北少（多）型以及东西反向的东多（少）西少（多）型等3大整体异常结构;在同一约束条件下,不同季节REOF分析所揭示的降水气候分区不同,冬季大致可划分为3个区,春季6个区,夏季7个区,秋季5个区;除南疆偏西地区冬季降水量未出现显著突变增加趋势外,新疆大部地区于1986年前后冬夏降水量同时显著突变增多,与其上空大气可降水量(APW)的增加有关;北疆春季降水量既没有显著的增加趋势,也未发生过突变;南疆大部地区春季降水量曾出现过显著突变增加,但突变时间早晚不一;从长期变化趋势看,北疆北部、中天山两侧及其以东地区秋季降水量虽增加不显著,但在1978年前后出现过突变增加,是季降水量突变最早区域;北疆西部冬、夏、秋降水量均显著增加,是新疆降水量增加最敏感区域,但秋季降水量的突变增加是从1997年开始的,比冬夏突变晚11 a左右,比其东部地区偏晚30 a左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆 季降水量 降水气候分区 变化趋势 突变分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-4-7 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-6-3 |
Climate Division of Seasonal Precipitation and Their Changing Trend in Xinjiang |
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| XIN Yu,MAO Wei-yi,LI Yuan-peng,ZHANG Xin,LU Ge,BO Li-jian.Climate Division of Seasonal Precipitation and Their Changing Trend in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Desert Research,2009,29(5):948-959. |
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| Authors: | XIN Yu MAO Wei-yi LI Yuan-peng ZHANG Xin LU Ge BO Li-jian |
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| Institution: | 1.Climate Center of Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China; 2.Meteorological Bureau of Bortala Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture, Bole 833400, Xinjiang, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation data from 88 meteorological stations during 1961—2006 in Xinjiang, the spatial distribution characteristic of seasonal precipitation, precipitation changing trend and abrupt change were diagnosed by the methods of EOF, REOF, linear trend, Kendall-τ test, cumulative anomaly, student-t test and SNR (Signal-to-Noise). The results show that the first three loading vector fields of EOF could reflect the three whole abnormal anomaly structures of rainfall in each season in Xinjiang, for example, wet or dry in whole region pattern, wet (or dry) in southern Xinjiang and dry (or wet) in northern Xinjiang pattern, wet (or dry) in the west and dry (or wet) in the east pattern. Under a same restriction law, the REOF could obtain different climatic sub-regions of precipitation in different seasons: three sub-regions in winter, six in spring, seven in summer and five in autumn. In most sub-regions of Xinjiang, winter and summer precipitation experienced an outstanding abrupt increase in 1986, except in the west of southern Xinjiang where winter precipitation did not display abrupt increase tendency. The increase in precipitation in winter and summer responded to the increase of atmospheric precipitable water (APW) above relative sub-regions. Neither was there a significant ascending trend nor an abrupt change in spring precipitation in northern Xinjiang, but there was abrupt rise in most of southern Xinjiang although the time of abrupt change was different. As for long-term change, the north of northern Xinjiang, two sides of the Middle Tianshan Mountains and its eastern all showed no obvious increase trend of autumn precipitation except for a sudden increase in 1978, being the earliest in Xinjiang. The west of northern Xinjiang is the most sensitive area to climate change, where the precipitation in winter, summer and autumn all increased remarkably, but the abrupt increase of autumn precipitation happened in 1997, being 11 year later than abrupt changes of winter and summer precipitation, and about 30 years later than that happened in its eastern areas. |
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| Keywords: | Xinjiang seasonal precipitation division of precipitation distribution changing trend abrupt change analysis |
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