| 钦州市降雨及入海河流径流演变规律与趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈立华,王焰,易凯,赖河涛.钦州市降雨及入海河流径流演变规律与趋势分析[J].水文,2016,36(6):89-96. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈立华 王焰 易凯 赖河涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广西大学土木建筑工程学院2.广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51469002)；广西自然科学基金项目(2015GXNSFBA139218)； |
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| 摘 要： | 依据钦州市58a平均降雨量和3条入海河流控制站径流量长序列资料,采用滑动平均、线性回归、Spearman、M-K及R/S法综合分析降雨径流的趋势性及突变特征。结果表明,钦州市降雨量总体呈弱增加趋势,增加率为0.742mm/10a,而茅岭江、钦江、大风江流域径流量存在总体减少趋势,减少率分别为0.2×108m~3/10a、1.1×108m~3/10a、0.4×108m~3/10a。运用复Molet小波分析多时间尺度周期性,降雨量序列存在5个时间尺度,22a和15a时间尺度分别为序列第一、三主周期;径流量序列存在3个时间尺度,其中22a和8a时间尺度分别为径流量序列第一、二主周期。
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| 关 键 词： | 钦州市 降雨量 径流量 趋势性 突变性 周期性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/2/20 0:00:00 |
Analysis of Rainfall and River Runoff Change Tendency in Qinzhou City |
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| CHEN Lihu,WANG Yan,YI Kai,LAI Hetao.Analysis of Rainfall and River Runoff Change Tendency in Qinzhou City[J].Hydrology,2016,36(6):89-96. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Lihu WANG Yan YI Kai LAI Hetao |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of the average rainfall from 1956 to 2013 and the runoff series of the 3 rivers in Qinzhou City over the past 50 years, the sliding average method, linear regression, M-K method and R/S method were used to analyze the tendency and mutation characteristics of the rainfall and runoff. The results show that there is a slow increase trend of the rainfall in Qinzhou City with the increase rate of 0.742mm/10a, and there is a decrease trend of the runoff in the river basins of Maolingjiang, Qinjiang and Dafengjiang with the decrease rates of 0.2 ×108 m3 /10a, 1.1 ×108 m3 /10a and 0.4 ×108 m3 /10a respectively. Molet wavelet analysis was made to get 5 time scales in the rainfall series, of which 22-year and 15-year scales are respectively the first main period and second main period of the rainfall series. There are 3 time scales in the runoff series, of which the 22- year and 8-year scales are respectively the first main period and second main period of the runoff series. |
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| Keywords: | Qinzhou City rainfall runoff trend mutation periodical variation |
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