| 我国甲烷排放情景分析:IPAC模型结果 |
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| 引用本文： | 贺晨旻,迟远英,向翩翩,徐杨梅,吴亚珍,焦玉捷,胡宇,姜克隽.我国甲烷排放情景分析:IPAC模型结果[J].大气科学学报,2022,45(3):414-427. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贺晨旻 迟远英 向翩翩 徐杨梅 吴亚珍 焦玉捷 胡宇 姜克隽 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江工业大学 浙江碳中和研究院, 浙江 杭州 310014;北京工业大学, 北京 100124;北京大学 环境科学和工程学院, 北京 100091 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部重点专项项目；国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFA0603804；2017YFA0605302） |
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| 摘 要： | 近期发布的IPCC第六次评估报告再次强调了短寿命期温室气体减排对温升减缓的作用。甲烷是最重要的短寿命期非CO2温室气体。在各国提出各自新的减排目标之后，针对甲烷减排的行动方案也越来越多。甲烷减排正在成为下一阶段各国和全球合作的重点领域之一。本文在我国碳减排目标下的能源转型基础上，结合其他非能源活动的减排排放源的减排技术选择基础上，利用IPAC模型对未来甲烷的排放情景进行了分析。在模型设定的两个情景分析基础之上，研究发现，到2050年的能源转型可明显减少能源活动的甲烷排放，和2015年相比能源活动的排放可减少67％。和其他行业相比，能源部门的甲烷减排具有更好的协同性。如果考虑进一步减排甲烷，则需要在考虑其他大气污染物减排的基础上，可通过实现天然气的进一步减排来实现。同时其他部门的甲烷减排也具有很大潜力，低甲烷排放情景可以实现到2050年将甲烷排放减少到1 494万吨，和2015年相比全范围排放可减排58％。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源转型 甲烷排放 碳中和 短寿命期温室气体 减排 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/5/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/6/10 0:00:00 |
CH4 emission scenario analysis for China: IPAC results |
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| HE Chenmin,CHI Yuanying,XIANG Pianpian,XU Yangmei,WU Yazhen,JIAO Yujie,HU Yu,JIANG Kejun.CH4 emission scenario analysis for China: IPAC results[J].大气科学学报,2022,45(3):414-427. |
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| Authors: | HE Chenmin CHI Yuanying XIANG Pianpian XU Yangmei WU Yazhen JIAO Yujie HU Yu JIANG Kejun |
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| Institution: | Zhejiang Carbon Neutral Innovation Institute, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014, China;Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100091, China |
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| Abstract: | The recently published IPCC AR6 once again emphasized the importance of CH4 mitigation in global warming abatement.CH4 is one of the most important short-life GHGs.Since many countries committed to the new CO2 emission reduction targets of carbon neutrality either by 2050 or before 2060, programs focusing on CH4 emission reduction have been increasing, and consequently CH4 emission reduction is becoming one of the key areas for national and global GHG mitigation and international collaboration.This paper presents CH4 emission scenarios for China based on the energy transition with the carbon neutrality target, together with mitigation technology options in other non-energy activities, by applying the IPAC model.With the two scenarios used in the modeling analysis, it is found that, with the energy transition, there will be significant CH4 emission reduction by 2050.The reason for this is the reduced use of fossil fuels in the transition, with 67% CH4 emission reduction compared with that in 2015.Compared with other sectors, CH4 emission reduction in energy sector has better synergy.If more CH4 mitigation is required, then reduced demand for nature gas may be a contributor.By combining this with O3 reduction, and since NO<i>x is a precursor of O3, by 2050 NO<i>x emission will mainly originate from natural gas combustion in the energy transition.In the meantime, CH4 emission mitigation from non-energy sectors also bears great potential.In the low-CH4 emission scenario, CH4 emission could be reduced by 14.94 Mt by 2050, with 58% reduction compared with 2015. |
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| Keywords: | energy transition CH4 emission carbon neutrality short-life GHGs mitigation |
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