Framing the application of adaptation pathways for rural livelihoods and global change in eastern Indonesian islands |
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| Institution: | 1. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, EcoSciences Precinct, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia;2. Faculty of Agriculture, University of Mataram, Jl. Majapahit 62, Mataram 83127, Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia;3. Assessment Institute for Agricultural Technology, Lombok, Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia;4. Faculty of Livestock Science, University of Mataram, Jl. Majapahit 62, Mataram 83125, Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia;5. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Black Mountain, Canberra, ACT 2911, Australia;6. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia;7. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Private Bag No 1, Aspendale, VIC 3195, Australia;8. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Australian Tropical Science Precinct, Private Mail Bag, Aitkenvale, QLD 4814, Australia;9. VECO Indonesia, Denpasar, Indonesia;10. Indonesia Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Agency, Jl. TGH. Ibrahim Khalidy, Kediri, Lobar, Mataram, Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia;11. Faculty of Economics, University of Mataram, Jl. Majapahit 62, Mataram 83127, Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia;12. NTB Environmental and Research Agency, Jalan Majapahit 56, Mataram, Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia;13. Griffin NRM, PO Box XYZ, Canberra, ACT, Australia;1. School of Sociology and Social Work, University of Bucharest, 9 Schitu Magureanu St, Bucharest 010181, Romania;2. School of Environment/CECHR, University of Dundee, Perth Road, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK;1. University of Nairobi, Dept. of Land Resources Management and Agricultural Technologies (LARMAT), Kabete Campus, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 29053, Nairobi, Kenya;2. Landscapes Governance Theme, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), United Nations Avenue, Gigiri, P.O. Box 30677- 00100, Nairobi, Kenya;3. Sustainable Livestock Systems, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), P.O. Box 30709-00100, Nairobi, Kenya;1. CSIRO Land and Water, Brisbane, Australia;2. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australia;3. Universitas Mataram, Mataram, Indonesia;4. Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, Canberra, Australia;5. Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Indonesia;1. Department of Geography, Ohio University, Athens, OH, USA;2. Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, UK;3. LInKS Trust Fund, PO Box 35097, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania;4. Department of Forest Biology, Faculty of Forestry and Nature Conservation, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 310, Chuo Kikuu, Morogoro, Tanzania;5. Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA;6. Department of Languages, Literatures, & Cultures, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA;7. Department of Geography, University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA;1. Urban Research Program, School of Environment, Griffith University, Australia;2. CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Dutton Park, Australia;3. London School of Economics, UK;4. Centre for Coastal Management, Griffith University, Australia;5. School of Engineering, Griffith University, Australia;6. College of Engineering and Science, Structural Mechanics and Materials Research Group, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia;7. School of Environment, Griffith University, Australia;1. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), P.O. Box 320 Bamako, Mali;2. Université Nationale d’Agriculture du Benin, P.O. Box 43 Kétou, Benin;3. CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Australian Tropical Science and Innovation Precinct, Private Mail Bag, Aitkenvale, QLD 4814, Australia;4. Institut Polytechnique Rural de Formation et de Recherche Appliquée de Katibougou, P.O. Box 06 Koulikoro, Mali;5. CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), P.O. Box 30709 Nairobi, Kenya |
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| Abstract: | In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated with human development to generate no regrets, co-benefit strategies for the rural poor, but there are few examples of how to achieve this. The adaptation pathways approach provides a potentially useful decision-making framework because it aims to steer societies towards sustainable futures by accounting for complex systems, uncertainty and contested multi-stakeholder arenas, and by maintaining adaptation options. Using Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, as an example we consider whether generic justifications for adaptation pathways are tenable in the local context of climate and global change, rural poverty and development. Interviews and focus groups held with a cross-section of provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province's island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts. |
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| Keywords: | Adaptive co-management Climate change Drivers of change Innovation niches Livelihoods Millennium Development Goals |
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