Severe climate-induced water shortage and extremes in Crete |
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| Authors: | Ioannis K Tsanis Aristeidis G Koutroulis Ioannis N Daliakopoulos Daniela Jacob |
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| Institution: | (1) Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece;(2) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle, creating changes in freshwater resources.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that, as a result, floods and prolonged droughts will take place
at increasingly frequent periods. The Mediterranean has been described as one of the main climate change “hot-spots”, with
recent simulations showing a collective picture of substantial drying and warming. This effect appears more pronounced during
warm periods, when the seasonal decrease of precipitation can exceed control climatology by 25–30%. Despite the decreasing
annual rainfall trend, an increase in the amount and intensity of wintertime rainfall is evident. However, the scientific
question on the quantitative impact of these signals to small scale coastal watersheds and Mediterranean islands has not been
answered. The state-of-the-art Ensembles dataset was employed to assess the impact of the changing climate on the water availability
of the island of Crete at basin scale. Here, the Ensembles precipitation and temperature data is used as input for a rainfall–runoff
model previous calibrated for the whole island with the principle of regionalization. Data analysis for the period 1970–2100
reveals an overall decreasing precipitation trend which, combined with a temperature rise, leads to substantial reduction
of water availability. Quantitative results of hydrological change provide the data required to improve knowledge and adaptation
policy to water shortages. |
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