| A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCIES |
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| 作者姓名： | Dong Keqin Greg J. Holland |
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| 作者单位： | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081，Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre，Melbourne，Australia |
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| 摘 要： | The relationship between tropical cyclone activity and ENSO is examined for the major cyclone regions using crosscorrelations,spectral analysis and composite analysis of eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature,thenormalised monthly Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and tropical cyclone frequencies.The closest relationship betweenthe 3—4 year ENSO period and tropical cyclone activity was found in the western North Pacific west of 160°E and thereseems to be significant potential for seasonal forecasting in this region based on ENSO parameters alone.No significantrelationships were found for the North Indian Ocean,and the remainder of the basins were dominated by oscillationsnear the quasi-biennial period.Physical explanations and forecasting of the seasonal variations in tropical cyclone num-bers in these regions will need to account for the QBO as well as the 3—4 year ENSO connections.
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| 收稿时间： | 1993/7/26 0:00:00 |
A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCIES |
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| Dong Keqin,Greg J. Holland.A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCIES[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1994,8(1):19-29. |
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| Authors: | Dong Keqin and Greg J Holland |
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| Institution: | Dong Keqin Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081Greg J.Holland Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre,Melbourne,Australia |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between tropical cyclone activity and ENSO is examined for the major cyclone regions using cross correlations,spectral analysis and composite analysis of eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature,the normalised monthly Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and tropical cyclone frequencies.The closest relationship betweenthe 3-4 year ENSO period and tropical cyclone activity was found in the western North Pacific west of 160°E and there seems to be significant potential for seasonal forecasting in this region based on ENSO parameters alone.No significant relationships were found for the North Indian Ocean,and the remainder of the basins were dominated by oscillations near the quasi-biennial period.Physical explanations and forecasting of the seasonal variations in tropical cyclone numbers in these regions will need to account for the QBO as well as the 3-4 year ENSO connections. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone El Nino Southern Oscillation |
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