Response Surface Designs for Scenario Management and Uncertainty Quantification in Reservoir Production |
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| Authors: | Astrid Jourdan and Isabelle Zabalza-Mezghani |
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| Institution: | (1) Reservoir Engineering Department, 92852 Rueil Malmaison Cedex, France |
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| Abstract: | Response surface experimental designs provide a framework for evaluating sensitivities and assessing uncertainties in reservoir-production forecasts for continuous parameters (i.e. permeability, flow rate, etc.). In this paper, the method is extended in order to integrate both continuous and discrete parameters (i.e. fault status: open/close, injection scheme: SWAG/WAG, etc.). This paper presents an appropriate experimental designs approach, notably the regression models associated with, and the statistical interpretation (sensitivity study, Monte Carlo simulations, etc.). The method has been successfully applied to a reservoir oil-production simulation problem. The objective was to define the best production scheme by optimizing the well-completion level. This application has highlighted the advantages of this new approach, both in terms of decreasing simulation cost and improving the interpretation quality. |
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| Keywords: | discrete parameter production scheme optimization risk analysis sensitivity composite design |
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