Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China |
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| Authors: | Zhe Yuan Zhiyong Yang Jun Yin Cheng Zhang Yong Yuan |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China;2. Water Resources Department, Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, China;3. Division of International Cooperation, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China;4. General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, China |
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| Abstract: | Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%. EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch |
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| Keywords: | climate change China water balance model surface water resources |
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