Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins |
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| Authors: | Yeugeniy M Gusev Vladimir A Semenov Olga N Nasonova Evgeny E Kovalev |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federationsowaso@yandex.ru;3. A.?M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation;4. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation;5. Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation |
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| Abstract: | Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or sub-seasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff. EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich |
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| Keywords: | climate and land surface models water balance components river basin weather noise uncertainty spectral density |
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