| 石油资源的定量评价预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘承祚,陶起,柴俊杰,吴泰然,英定文.石油资源的定量评价预测[J].地质科学,1988,0(2):170-177. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘承祚 陶起 柴俊杰 吴泰然 英定文 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地质研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文涉及石油资源的定量评价预测。文中介绍了六种方法:随机过程法、搜索区分析法、油田规模分布的极大似然估计法、蒙特卡洛法、经验分布变换法、模糊综合评判法。这些方法在我国中部一个油田石油资源评价预测中得到应用并获得了满意的结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 石油资源定量评价预测 蒙特卡洛方法 随机过程方法 实例研究 |
| 收稿时间： | 1986-07-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 1986-07-01; |
QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF PETROLEUM RESOURCES |
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| Liu Chengzuo Tao Qi Chai Junjie Wu Tairan Ying Dingwen.QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF PETROLEUM RESOURCES[J].Chinese Journal of Geology,1988,0(2):170-177. |
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| Authors: | Liu Chengzuo Tao Qi Chai Junjie Wu Tairan Ying Dingwen |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geology, Academia Sinica. Beijing |
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| Abstract: | Estimation and prediction of petroleum resources is one of the important problems in developing petroleum industry. Usually, petroleum geologists must solve the following two problems: 1) existence or absence of petroleum in a region; 2) if petroleum exists in a region, the quantity of petroleum in the region. For solving the problems successfully, it is necessary to engage in serial theoretical, methodological and technical researches.The authors of this paper have made some efforts fro solving the problems by means of theory and methods of mathematical geology. First, the state of art of methods of estimation and prediction of petroleum resources have been introduced. Secondly, the problem of estimation and prediction of petroleum resources has been presented and the ain way for solving the problem has been shown. Thirdly, the basic principles of methods of estimation and prediction of petroleum resources have been discussed. In this paper the following six methods have been utilized: stochastic process method, search area analysis method, maximum likelihood estimation method of oil field distribution. Monte-Carlo method, method of alternation of empirical distribution and method of fuzzy senthetical judge. Mathematical concept, conditions, which are required for application of the methods, basic parameters and original data for the six methods are described. The methods have been applied to one of the oil fields in central part of China and satisfactory results have been obtained. Finally, some meaningful conclusions have been made. |
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| Keywords: | petroleum resources quantitative estimation and prediction Monte-Carlo mc-ihod stochastic process method case study |
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