| 全球气候变暖情景下黑河山区流域水资源的变化 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 蓝永超,丁永建,刘进琪,康尔泗,魏智.全球气候变暖情景下黑河山区流域水资源的变化[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(6):863-868. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 蓝永超 丁永建 刘进琪 康尔泗 魏智 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 《中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目》(KZCX3-SW-229)，中国科学院创新工程重大项目(KZCX1-10-03)资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用有关水文气象观测资料,对全球气候变暖情景下祁连山区黑河流域水资源的变化特征、成因及趋势进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了未来各种假定气候情景下黑河山区径流变化的计算模式。分析及计算结果表明:黑河山区水资源对全球气候变暖的响应十分明显,但受其特殊地理位置的影响,水资源的变化又有着显著的地域性特征。总体上,山区的气温和降水随全球增温均呈上升和增加的趋势,且气温上升的幅度大于全球平均水平,山区径流亦随降水量的增加而增加,但增幅随着气温升高而逐渐减小,除非遭遇到比较极端的气候情景,如气温升幅与降水减幅同时出现较大值的“暖—干”气候组合或气温降幅与降水增幅的同时出现较大值的“冷—湿”气候组合等。因此,可以预计,未来几十年里黑河山区水资源量虽随着降水、气温的变化而上下波动,但变化相对稳定,其幅度基本在目前出山径流量的±10%左右范围内。
|
| 关 键 词： | 黑河 山区流域 全球气候变暖 水资源 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-694X（2005）06-0863-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-04-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-06-09 |
Change of Water Resources in Mountainous Area of Heihe River under Global-Warming Scene |
| |
| LAN Yong-chao,DING Yong-jian,LIU Jin-qi,KANG Er-si,WEI Zhi.Change of Water Resources in Mountainous Area of Heihe River under Global-Warming Scene[J].Journal of Desert Research,2005,25(6):863-868. |
| |
| Authors: | LAN Yong-chao DING Yong-jian LIU Jin-qi KANG Er-si WEI Zhi |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on 50-year hydrologic and meteorological records,the paper has analyzed the characteristics,cause of formation,and trend of water resources change under global warming scene in the Heihe river basin.A model used to calculate runoff change in the mountainous area of the Heihe river basin under various suppositional climate scenes is presented.The results of analysis and calculating show that the response of the water resources change in the mountainous area of the Heihe river basin is quite obvious to global warming,but there is distinct territorial characteristics in change of the water resources in the mountainous area.As a whole,temperature and precipitation in the area all have been presenting an ascending trend along with global warming since 1950s,and the rise range of temperature is larger than that of global temperature rising.Also runoff in the area increase along with precipitation increase,but its range will gradually decrease along with temperature rise.So change of the water resources in the area will be steady as a whole.Although water resources in the area in the future decades will increase or decrease along with the change of temperature and precipitation,but the change ranges generally are less than 10% of the its current quantity except that a extreme \!warm-dry\" or \!cold-humid\" climate combination occurs,that is,the ranges of temperature rise and precipitation decrease or the ranges of temperature fall and precipitation increase are synchronously larger. |
| |
| Keywords: | the Heihe River the mountainous area global warming water resources |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
