| 厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜事件的成因与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨冬红,杨学祥.厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜事件的成因与预测[J].新疆气象,2008,2(5):1-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨冬红 杨学祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学地球探测科学与技术学院，中国科学院国家天文台 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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吉林大学校科研和教改项目
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| 摘 要： | 通过对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、臭氧变化资料、太平洋海温资料、地球自转速度变化资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的综合验证，发现了构造运动与厄尔尼诺因果关系。大气、海洋与岩石圈的角动量交换在南半球和北半球有不同的形式，这是由陆海分布的差异决定的。南极上空臭氧变化和环南极海冰变化是赤道海温和全球气候准两年振荡的原因。其中，德雷克海峡的海冰变化起主要作用。这个结论给出了作者提出的“海洋锅炉效应”、“臭氧洞漏能效应”、“德雷克海冰气候开关效应”和“大洋地壳跷跷板运动”的相互关系，证明构造运动对厄尔尼诺的重要影响。强潮汐准4a周期的发现，表明南极海冰变化、东太平洋海温变化、地球自转变化和厄尔尼诺都具有4a准周期变化的原因。海温和海冰开关的准2a周期和日食-厄尔尼诺系数理论有较好的预测效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 日食-厄尔尼诺系数 拉尼娜 海冰 地震 地球自转 两年振荡 潮汐 |
The Causes for E1 Nino and La Nina Events and Their Prediction |
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| YANG Dong-hong and YANG Xue-xiang.The Causes for E1 Nino and La Nina Events and Their Prediction[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2008,2(5):1-10. |
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| Authors: | YANG Dong-hong and YANG Xue-xiang |
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| Institution: | YANG Dong-hong, YANG Xue-xiang( 1.College of Geo-exploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China; 2. National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, Beijing 100012, China) |
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| Abstract: | Through comparing the data of sea ice around South Pole continent, ozone hole, temperature in Pacific Ocean, air temperature in South Pole continent, the velocity of earth＇s rotation and El Nino and La Nina events, a determined causality between the tectonic movement and El Nino was detected. The angular momentum exchange among atmosphere, ocean and lithosphere were different from southern hemisphere to northern hemisphere. The quasi biennial oscillation of global climate and equator ocean temperature are caused by the changes of ozone hole and sea ice around South Pole continent, and the sea ice in Drake channel play more important role than the others. This conclusion have given out the correlation among ＂sea bottom boiler effect＂, ＂energy leakage of ozone hole＂, ＂Drake sea-ice effect＂ and ＂ocean-crust seesaw movement＂, we advanced these above. So, the tectonic movement and landform impact significantly El Nino and La Nina to be proved. To have discovered the quasi four years cycle of strong tide indicated that there was the cause of quasi four-year oscillation for the changes of the sea ice around South Pole continent, the temperature in Eastern Pacific Ocean, the velocity of earth＇s rotation and El Nino.The quasi biennial oscillation of the ocean temperature in Drake channel and the theory of solar eclipse- El Nino coefficient have given fairly us two good predictors. |
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| Keywords: | solar eclipse - El Nino coefficient La Nina sea ice earthquake earth rotation biennial oscillation tide |
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