VULNERABILITY OF AGRONOMIC SYSTEMS IN BULGARIA |
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| Authors: | Vesselin A Alexandrov |
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| Institution: | (1) National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 66 Tzarigradsko chaussee, Sofia, 1784, Bulgaria |
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| Abstract: | In recent years the problem of climate and its variations under the influence of natural processes and factors of anthropogenetic origin has come to the forefront of scientific and practical problems on a world-wide scale. Climate change vulnerability assessments of agronomic systems in Bulgaria have been initiated. In this paper preliminary results of this study are presented. Different climate change scenarios were defined. Global circulation model (GCM) scenarios and incremental scenarios for Bulgaria were created and applied. The influence of climate change on potential crop growing season above a base of 5° and 10 °C in Bulgaria was investigated. Increases in temperature can be expected to lengthen the potential growing season, resulting in a shift of thermal limits of agriculture in Bulgaria. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 2.1 was used to assess the influence of climate change on grain yield of maize and winter wheat. Maize and winter wheat yields decreased with increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation. |
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