Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea |
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| Authors: | Anna Fokaefs Gerassimos A Papadopoulos |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, 24008, 11810 Athens, Greece |
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| Abstract: | A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local
tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are
documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami
intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported
in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast
from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however,
occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this
paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of
subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal
earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence
in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10−3 and 2.7 × 10−3 events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate,
strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10−3 within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential
in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness
of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic
sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine
region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region. |
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| Keywords: | Cyprus Levantine Sea Strong earthquakes Tsunami catalogue Tsunami hazard |
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