Probabilistic risk and uncertainty analysis for bioremediation of four chlorinated ethenes in groundwater |
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| Authors: | I D Benekos C A Shoemaker J R Stedinger |
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| Institution: | (1) ENVIRON International Corporation, Marketplace Tower, 6001 Shellmound Street, Suite 700, Emeryville, CA 94608-2040, USA;(2) School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hollister Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-3501, USA |
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| Abstract: | Groundwater contamination risk assessment for health-threatening compounds should benefit from a stochastic environmental
risk assessment which considers the effects of biological, chemical, human behavioral, and physiological processes that involve
elements of biotic and abiotic aquifer uncertainty, and human population variability. This paper couples a complex model of
chemical degradation and transformation with movement in an aquifer undergoing bioremediation to generate a health risk analysis
for different population cohorts in the community. A two-stage Monte Carlo simulation has separate stages for population variability
and aquifer uncertainty yielding a computationally efficient and conceptually attractive algorithm. A hypothetical example
illustrates how risk variance analysis can be conducted to determine the distribution of risk, and the relative impact of
uncertainty and variability in different sets of parameters upon the variation of risk values for adults, adolescents, and
children. The groundwater example considers a community water supply contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Biodegradation
pathways are enhanced by addition of butyrate. The results showed that the contribution of uncertainty to the risk variance
is comparable to that of variability. Among the uncertain parameters considered, transmissivity accounted for the major part
of the output variance. Children were the most susceptible and vulnerable population cohort. |
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| Keywords: | Two-stage Monte Carlo Uncertainty Variability Risk analysis |
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