| 1971—2020年金华地区极端降水变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩芙蓉,鹿翔,董美莹,龚俊强,虞志昂,方佳倩.1971—2020年金华地区极端降水变化特征[J].气象与减灾研究,2023,46(1):18-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩芙蓉 鹿翔 董美莹 龚俊强 虞志昂 方佳倩 |
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| 作者单位： | 金华市气象局;浙江省气象科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 金华市科学技术局公益性技术应用研究项目(编号:2022 04 079；2022 04 080）；浙江省气象局科技计划项目（编号:2022QN31；2022QN33） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用浙江省7个国家气象站逐日降水数据和8个极端降水气候指数，应用线性拟合、Mann Kendall检验、小波分析和反距离权重插值等方法，分析1971—2020年金华地区极端降水指数时空分布特征。结果表明：金华地区除了持续干期（CDD）呈下降趋势外，年降水量（PRCPTOT）、平均日降水强度（ISDII）、强降水量（R95p）、极强降水量（R99p）、最大1 d降水量（Rx1day）、暴雨日数（R50）和持续湿期（CWD）均呈逐渐增大趋势。金华地区极端降水指数具有一定的周期性和突变特征，PRCPTOT、ISDII、R50、Rx1day、R95p和R99p第一主周期为23—25 a；CDD和CWD周期较短，第一主周期分别为2 a和4 a。PRCPTOT、ISDII、R95p和R50突变主要出现在21世纪初，Rx1day和R99p主要出现在20世纪80年代和21世纪初，均是由相对偏少期突变为相对偏多期。ISDII和CDD空间分布表现为东北部大于西南部外，除此之外的6个指数总体表现为西部大于东部。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端降水指数，时空分布，Mann Kendall，小波分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/9/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/12/10 0:00:00 |
Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in Jinhua area from 1971 to 2020 |
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| Han Furong,Lu Xiang,Dong Meiying,Gong Junqiang,Yu Zhiang,Fang Jiaqian.Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in Jinhua area from 1971 to 2020[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2023,46(1):18-27. |
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| Authors: | Han Furong Lu Xiang Dong Meiying Gong Junqiang Yu Zhiang Fang Jiaqian |
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| Institution: | Jinhua Meteorological Bureau;Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation data of 7 national meteorological stations in Zhejiang and 8 extreme precipitation climate indices from 1971 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of Jinhua area were analyzed by linear fitting, Mann Kendall test, wavelet analysis and inverse distance weight interpolation. The results showed that: PRCPTOT, ISDII, Rx1day, R50, R95p, R99p and CWD presented a gradually increasing trend, while CDD exhibited a decreasing trend. The extreme precipitation index in Jinhua region showed a certain periodicity and mutation characteristics. The first main cycle of PRCPTOT, ISDII, R50, Rx1day, R95p and R99p were about 23-25 a. The cycle of CDD and CWD were shorter, with the first main period of 2 a and 4 a, respectively. The mutations of PRCPTOT, ISDII, R95p and R50 mainly appeared in the early 21st century, and Rx1day and R99p mainly appeared in the 1980s and the early 21st century, all of which mutated from relatively less stage to relatively more stage. In addition, ISDII and CDD was larger over the northeast than the southwest, while the other 6 indexes showed larger over the west than the east. |
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