| 气候变化对挠力河径流量影响的定量分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚允龙,吕宪国,王蕾,于洪贤.气候变化对挠力河径流量影响的定量分析[J].水科学进展,2010,21(6):765-770. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚允龙 吕宪国 王蕾 于洪贤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.东北林业大学野生动物资源学院, 黑龙江, 哈尔滨, 150040; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目，中国科学院湿地生态与环境重点实验室开放基金，中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 三江平原位于黑龙江省东北部,是中国沼泽湿地集中分布区且面积最大的区域,挠力河作为该区域的一条典型沼泽性河流,其径流演变过程受到气候变化和人类活动的双重影响.文中利用水量平衡法和降水-径流经验模型,定量分析了变化期气候变化对径流的影响,并比较了两种方法的优劣性,研究结果表明:50年来挠力河变化期(1968~2005年)内的年径流量的变化大约40%是由气候变化引起.气候变化对径流量影响的主导因素是降水量的变化,降水量变化对宝清站和菜嘴子站径流量减少的贡献率分别为43%和35%,蒸发量变化对两水文站径流量减少的贡献率为10%左右.利用水量平衡法研究气候变化对河流径流量的影响,其研究结果要优于一般的降水-径流经验模型法,但经验模型也不失为一种快速且简便的方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源 降水量 沼泽湿地 径流量 气候变化 挠力河 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-12-09 |
A quantitative analysis of climate change impacts on runoff in Naoli River |
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| YAO Yun-long,L Xian-guo,WANG Lei,YU Hong-xian.A quantitative analysis of climate change impacts on runoff in Naoli River[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(6):765-770. |
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| Authors: | YAO Yun-long L Xian-guo WANG Lei YU Hong-xian |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Wildlife Resource, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China;2.Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China;3.College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Heilongjiang Institute of Science and Technology, Harbin 150027, China |
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| Abstract: | The Sanjiang(three rivers) Plain is situated on the northeastern part of Heilong jiang Province.The plain embraces most concentrated marsh lands and is the largest in China.The Naoli River is a typical marsh river on the Sanjiang Plain; its hydrological regime is largely a ffected by the dual factor of clmiate change and human activities.In this paper,the water balance method and empirical model are used to establish the rainfall runoffre lationship on the Naoli River.Discussions on the advan tages and disadvantages of the two approaches are given.The results show that about 40% of changes in mean annual runoffduring the period 1968 2005 are the results of climate change through the reduction in precipitation for the same period.For example,at Baoqing and Caizuizi stations,43% and 35% decreasing in mean annual runoff can be attributed to the reduction in precipitation,while the evaporation change is only responsible for 10% of such change.Our study also indicate that the water balance method may possess certain advantages over the empirical model,the latter can still be considered to be a quick and easy approach to the subject after all. |
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| Keywords: | Water resource precipitation marsh land runoff clmiate change Naoli River |
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