| New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific |
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| 作者姓名： | FAN Ke Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China |
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| 作者单位： | FAN Ke Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100029，China |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;中国科学院国际合作项目 |
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| 摘 要： | In this paper, the impacts of the atmospheric circulation during boreal winter-spring on the western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon frequency (WNPTF) are studied. Several new factors in winter-spring in- fluencing the typhoon frequency were identified, including the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the North Pacific oscillation. Based on these results, the multi-linear regression was applied to establishing a new forecast model for the typhoon frequency by using the datasets of 1965―1999. The forecast model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.79) between the model simulated and the actual typhoon frequencies in the period of 1965―1999. The forecast model also exhibits reasonable hindcasts for the typhoon frequencies for the years 2000―2006. Therefore, this work demonstrates that the new pre- dictors are significant for the prediction of the interannual variability of the WNPTF, which could be potentially used in the operational seasonal forecast of the typhoon frequency in the WNP to get a more physically based operational prediction model and higher forecast skill.
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| 收稿时间： | 4 April 2007 |
| 修稿时间： | 4 June 2007 |
New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific |
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| FAN Ke Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing ,China.New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific[J].Science in China(Earth Sciences),2007,50(9):1417-1423. |
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| Authors: | Fan Ke |
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| Institution: | Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the impacts of the atmospheric circulation during boreal winter-spring on the western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon
frequency (WNPTF) are studied. Several new factors in winter-spring influencing the typhoon frequency were identified, including
the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the North Pacific oscillation. Based on these results, the multi-linear regression
was applied to establishing a new forecast model for the typhoon frequency by using the datasets of 1965–1999. The forecast
model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.79) between the model simulated and the actual typhoon frequencies in the period
of 1965–1999. The forecast model also exhibits reasonable hindcasts for the typhoon frequencies for the years 2000–2006. Therefore,
this work demonstrates that the new predictors are significant for the prediction of the interannual variability of the WNPTF,
which could be potentially used in the operational seasonal forecast of the typhoon frequency in the WNP to get a more physically
based operational prediction model and higher forecast skill.
Supported the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005, 40620130113 and 40523001) and the International
Partnership Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences |
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| Keywords: | predictors the western North Pacific typhoon frequency forecast model |
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