Potential predictability of Eurasian snow cover |
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| Institution: | 1. Ionian University, Department of Environment, 29100 Zakynthos, Greece;2. University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, 45110 Ioannina, Greece;1. EuroMediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), via Franceschini 31, Bologna, Italy;2. University of Bologna, Department of Physics and Astrophysics, Viale Berti Pichat 6/2, Bologna, Italy;3. European Commission, Joint Research Center, via Fermi 2749, Ispra, Italy;4. Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss - Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257 CH-8058 Zurich-Airport, Switzerland;5. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Creti 12, Bologna, Italy |
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| Abstract: | Potential predictability and skill of simulated Eurasian snow cover are explored using a suite of seasonal ensemble hindcasts (i.e. retrospective forecasts), an ensemble climate simulation (spanning the years 1982–1998) and observations. Using remotely sensed observations of snow cover, we find significant point-wise correlation over the North Atlantic and North Pacific between winter and spring averaged sea-surface temperatures and Eurasian snow cover area. The observed correlation shows no discernible pattern related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The hindcasts show correlation patterns similar to the observations. However, the climate simulation shows an exaggerated ENSO pattern. The results underscore the importance of initialization in seasonal climate forecasts, and that the observed potential predictability of Eurasian snowcover cannot be solely attributed to ENSO. |
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