Biogeophysical impacts of land use on present-day climate: near-surface temperature change and radiative forcing |
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| Institution: | 1. The Mind Research Network, Albuquerque, NM, USA;2. Department of Electrical Engineering, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA;3. Olin Neuropsychiatry Research Center, Institute of Living, Hartford, CT, USA;4. Departments of Psychiatry and Neuroscience, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA;5. Departments of Neurosciences and Psychiatry, University of New Mexico School of Medicine, Albuquerque, NM, USA;6. Psychology Department and Neuroscience Institute, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA;7. Division of Psychological and Social Medicine and Developmental Neurosciences, Faculty of Medicine, TU Dresden, Germany;8. MGH/MIT/HMS Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital, Charlestown, MA, USA;9. Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA;10. Department of Psychiatry, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA |
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| Abstract: | Changes in land cover affect climate through the surface energy and moisture budgets, but these biogeophysical impacts of land use have not yet been included in General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations of 20th century climate change. Here, the importance of these effects was assessed by comparing climate simulations performed with current and potential natural vegetation. The northern mid-latitude agricultural regions were simulated to be approximately 1–2 K cooler in winter and spring in comparison with their previously forested state, due to deforestation increasing the surface albedo by approximately 0.1 during periods of snow cover. Some other regions such as the Sahel and India experienced a small warming due to land use. Although the annual mean global temperature is only 0.02 K lower in the simulation with present-day land use, the more local temperature changes in some regions are of a similar magnitude to those observed since 1860. The global mean radiative forcing by anthropogenic surface albedo change relative to the natural state is simulated to be ?0.2 Wm2, which is comparable with the estimated forcings relative to pre-industrial times by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, N2O, halocarbons, and the direct effect of anthropogenic aerosols. Since over half of global deforestation has occurred since 1860, simulations of climate since that date should include the biogeophysical effects of land use. |
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