| 四维变分同化方法在台风初始化及其数值模拟中的应用--对9608号(Herb)台风的研究结果 |
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| 作者姓名： | ZHANG Xiaoyan WANG Bin JI Zhongzhen Qingnong XIAO ZHANG Xin |
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| 作者单位： | [1]LASG,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100029 [2]MesoscaleandMicroscaleMeteorology,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,Boulder,Colorado,USA |
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| 基金项目： | CAS Key Innovation Direction Project Grant,国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the authors generate an optimal initial condition for a typhoon by using the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. BDA is able to recover many of the structural features of typhoons including a warm-core vertex, the correct center position, and the strong circulation.As a result of BDA using a bogus surface low, dramatic improvement is achieved in the 72 h prediction of typhoon Herb. Through several cases, the initialization by BDA effectively generates the harmonious inner structure of the typhoon, but which is lacking in the original analysis field. Therefore the intensity forecast is improved greatly. Some improvements are made in the track forecast, but more work still needs to be done.
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| 关 键 词： | 四维变分同化方法 台风 初始化 数值模拟 热带气旋 天气预报 优化 9608号台风 |
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