| CONVECTIVE ANOMALIES IN TROPICAL OCEAN AREAS AND LONG-LEAD FORECAST OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN SHANDONG |
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| 作者姓名： | 张苏平 胡桂芳 |
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| 作者单位： | Shandong Meteorological Institute,Ji'nan,250031 China
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| 基金项目： | Physical Causes of Short-term Drought and Floods Climate in Shandong Province and the
Prediction — a sub-subject in the item of Studies on Short-term Climate Prediction System in China
(96-908-05-06-10) |
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| 摘 要： | This study focuses on deep convection anomalies in tropical regions in winter-spring period and
their possible influence on the following summer rainfall in Shandong province. On the basis of monthly
precipitation wet and dry summers in Shandong are defined according to a precipitation index. Then monthly OLR
data, observed by NOAA satellites, are used to diagnose the features of deep convection for both wet and dry
summers. It is found that negative anomalies seem dominant prior to wet summers, while large areas of positive
anomalies appear prior to dry summers in tropical oceans. The differences are remarkable especially in the western,
middle and eastern tropical Pacific as well as in the tropical Indian Ocean. Correlative analysis confirms the
relations between OLR and precipitation. Subtropical High, which plays an essential role in summer rainfall, is also connected with the deep conviction. Altogether eight EOF-CCA forecast models are established on the basis of
the above study. The assessment of the models relies on the gauge observing precipitation in 1997 and 1998. The
results show that models using spring OLR data appear to be more practicable than those using winter OLR data,
and the models established with OLR in western Pacific and the Indian Ocean perform better than the others.
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| 关 键 词： | 对流 热带海洋 夏季 降水 山东 EOF-CCA |
CONVECTIVE ANOMALIES IN TROPICAL OCEAN AREAS AND LONG-LEAD FORECAST OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN SHANDONG |
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| ZHANG Su-ping and HU Gui-fang.CONVECTIVE ANOMALIES IN TROPICAL OCEAN AREAS AND LONG-LEAD FORECAST OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN SHANDONG[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2002,8(1):56-62. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Su-ping and HU Gui-fang |
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| Institution: | Shandong Meteorological Institute |
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| Abstract: | This study focuses on deep convection anomalies in tropical regions in winter-spring period and their possible influence on the following summer rainfall in shandong province,On the basis of monthly precipitation wet and dry summers in shandong are defined according to a precipitation index.Then monthly OLR data,observed by NOAA satellites,are used to diagnose the features of deep convection for both wet and dry summers.It is found that negative anomalies seem dominant prior to wet summers.while large areas of positive anomalies appear prior to dry summers in tropical oceans.The differences are remarkable especially in the western.middle and eastern tropical Pacific as well as in the tropical Indian Ocean.Correlative analysis confirms the relations between OLR and precipitation.Subtropical High.which plays an essential role in summer rainfall.is also connected with the deep conviction.Altogether eight EOF-CCA forecast models are established on the basis of the above study.The assessment of the models relies on the gauge observing precipitiation in 1997 and 1998.The rsults show that models suing spring OLR data appear to be more practicable than those using winter OLR data,and the models established with OLR in western Pacific and the Indian Ocean perform better than the others,. |
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| Keywords: | deep convection tropical oceans summer rainfall Shandong province EOF-CCA |
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