| Institution: | Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, Systems Analysis and Mathematical Modelling Group, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, P.O. Box 2503, 26111, Oldenburg, Germany |
| Abstract: | An effective management of the rapidly dwindling marine fish resources is of great ecological, economic and social importance for the future. An over-development of commercial fisheries has brought about a multitude of negative environmental impacts, such as an accelerated exploitation of stocks or a decrease of marine biodiversity, and furthermore, a profound structural change in fish industry. However, the main reason for the non-prosperous rationing of marine resources is the lack of knowledge about certain processes as well as the non-availability of adequate steering instruments. This paper addresses the lack of conceptualization in the case of uncertain knowledge. It proposes a model approach which can be used for weak but improved decision support under the premise of vague knowledge. The usage of qualitative differential equations illustrates general patterns of overcapitalization of fishing fleets. The extension of traditional model approaches by integration of additional socio-economic phenomena in this context supplies deeper insights in the dynamics of a coupled economic and ecological system. The approach provides a set of characteristic system behaviours which can be fruitfully used for the development of future management tasks. |
