| 等权平均组合预测在斜坡变形位移中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王洪兴,唐辉明,王 冠.等权平均组合预测在斜坡变形位移中的应用[J].岩土力学,2005,26(Z2):41-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王洪兴 唐辉明 王 冠 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学 工程学院，武汉 430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 单一预测模型仅能体现系统的局部，其预测精度较差。为此，研究了组合预测方法在斜坡变形位移中的应用，它将各种预测方法进行适当的组合，综合利用各种预测方法所提供的有用信息进行预测。首先建立5种单一预测模型分别进行了预测，然后把各个预测模型的预测结果等权平均进行组合预测。并通过对链子崖危岩体监测点 位移值的预测，预测结果表明其绝对误差较低，精度较高,大大地提高了预测的精度和稳健性。
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 模型 变形 位移 危岩体 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-27 |
Application of average combinatorial forecast in equal weight
to the displacement in the deformation of slope |
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| WANG Hong-xing,TANG Hui-ming,WANG Guan.Application of average combinatorial forecast in equal weight
to the displacement in the deformation of slope[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2005,26(Z2):41-44. |
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| Authors: | WANG Hong-xing TANG Hui-ming WANG Guan |
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| Institution: | Engineering Faculty, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, Chain |
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| Abstract: | The application of combinatorial forecasting method to determining displacement due to slope deformation is described. It suitably combines with models of forecast, synthetically uses the very useful information in all models of forecast. At first, five models of forecast: moving average model; exponential smoothing model; exponential trend model and regression analysis model are established and then respectively forecasts to the displacement value in deformation of hazardous rock masses. Finally, the results of forecast from every model are averaged in equal weight and they are synthetically forecast again. An actual example, the forecast of displacement values at observation point of Lianziya hazardous rock masses is applied. The forecast results show that their absolute errors are less and the precision is higher. It greatly improves the steadiness and the precision of forecast. |
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| Keywords: | combinatorial forecast model displacement deformation hazardous rock mass |
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