| 黄河干流径流量暂态成分与时频分析及其预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 周后福,李春.黄河干流径流量暂态成分与时频分析及其预测[J].气象科学,2003,23(2):200-208. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周后福 李春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥,230031
2. 南京气象学院,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省自然基金 2 0 0 3年项目的资助,项目编号 :0 3 0 45 40 2 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用时间序列的研究方法对黄河干流径流量的暂态成分进行了分析，用小波方法研究了径流量的时频结构，结果表明：黄河上游水量与下游水量具有极好的一致性，径流量没有明显的下降趋势，径流量也没有突变现象，但基流径流量例外；径流量有准10a、3—4a左右的周期变化。用模拟性能极好的均值生成函数对径流量进行了预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 黄河径流量 暂态成分 时频分析 径流预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001/11/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年11月22 |
TEMPORARY STATE ANALYSIS FOR FLOW-OFF MASS OF RIVERS'MAIN CURRENT AND FORECAST |
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| Zhou Houfu and Li Chun.TEMPORARY STATE ANALYSIS FOR FLOW-OFF MASS OF RIVERS''MAIN CURRENT AND FORECAST[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2003,23(2):200-208. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Houfu and Li Chun |
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| Institution: | Zhou Houfu 1 Li Chun 2 |
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| Abstract: | The paper has analyzed transient component of flow-off mass of rivers' main current according to Yellow River by using of the reserach method of time sequence, and researached time-frequency structure of flow-off mass by using of wavelet transform. The result shows that the water coming from Yellow River upstream is well consistent with precipitaitons of its downstream, flow-off mass has not obvious trend of decline and break phenomena except for basic flow-off mass. Periodic variations of about 10a and 3-4a of flow-off mass are found by using of wavelet analysis. The paper has also forecasted flow-off mass using mean generating function (MGF) model whose modeling ability is excellent. |
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| Keywords: | Flow-off mass of Yellow River Transient component Time-frequency structure Flow-off mass forecast |
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