|
|||||
|
|
Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics |
|
| Authors: | Ruping Mo Paul I Joe Chris Doyle Paul H Whitfield |
| Institution: | 1. National Laboratory for Coastal and Mountain Meteorology, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, 201-401 Burrard Street, Vancouver, BC, V6C 3S5, Canada 2. Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada 3. Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada |
| Abstract: | A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981–2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics. |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ | |