| 设定地震地表破裂阈值下的一种条件概率分析模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 万波,郑双成,杨舒程.设定地震地表破裂阈值下的一种条件概率分析模型[J].东北地震研究,2011,27(1):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 万波 郑双成 杨舒程 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁省地震局,辽宁,沈阳,110034 |
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| 摘 要： | 大量的研究表明,地震地表破裂长度（或位移量）L（D）与地震强度之间具有良好的统计关系：LgL（D）=a＋bMs,a、b系数取决于所处地震地质区域及发震断层性质的差异;研究同时表明,地震破裂的错动面积（A′）实际上反映了地震作用沿断层面破裂时的能量转换,它可以描述为：A′=∫L0乙f（L）dL,f（L）的物理意义表示为破裂总位移量（水平位移与垂直位移的矢量和）D′沿破裂长度的分布,D′～N（μ,σ2）。在对发震断层的设定地震进行讨论的基础上,给出了地震地表破裂的分析预测模型,即从建、构筑物的抗震设防水平出发,对于给定的场地容许的破裂尺度L（D）c,不突破此一破裂尺度L（D）c的场地地震地表破裂概率可以表示为：P（L〈Lc）=∫LC0乙g（L）dL,破裂尺度L（D）相对于不同的地震震级服从对数正态分布LN（μ,σ2）。
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| 关 键 词： | 活动断层 地震 地震地表破裂 设定地震 对数正态分布 分析预测模型 |
A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY MODEL OF SURFACE SEISMIC RUPTURE ANALYTIC PREDICTION UNDER A DETERMINED THRESHOLD VALUE |
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| WAN Bo,ZHENG Shuang-cheng,YANG Shu-cheng.A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY MODEL OF SURFACE SEISMIC RUPTURE ANALYTIC PREDICTION UNDER A DETERMINED THRESHOLD VALUE[J].Seismological Research of Northeast China,2011,27(1):1-7. |
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| Authors: | WAN Bo ZHENG Shuang-cheng YANG Shu-cheng |
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| Institution: | WAN Bo,ZHENG Shuang-cheng,YANG Shu-cheng (Earthquake Administration of Liaoning Province,Liaoning Shenyang 110034,China) |
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| Abstract: | Massive studies have proved that surface seismic rupture parameters L（D）have a good statistical relationship with the earthquake intensity,it is descibed：LgL（D）=a＋bMs,a、b coefficients depend on the seismogenic fault property and where the the earthquake happens.The studies also proved that surface seismic rupture staggered area（A′） reflects the transformed energy when the rupture along a fualt is made by th earthquake,it is descibed：A′=∫f（L）dL,the physical meanings of f（L） is the total displacement vector D′（contains horizontal and vertical displacement vectors）distribution along the rupture,D′～N（μ,σ2）.Based on the study of scenario earthquake for seismogenic fault,a model of analytic prediction about the surface seismic rupture can be given,upon the requirement for fortification against earthquake for buildings and construction works,as to a determined allowable L（D）c value,the surface seismic rupture probability under L（D）c is descibed：P（LLc）=∫g（L）dL,L（D）～LN（μ,σ2）. |
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| Keywords: | active fault earthquake surface seismic rupture scenario earthquake logarithmic-normal distribution model of analytic prediction |
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