How long is coal's future? |
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| Authors: | Ralph M Rotty Alvin M Weinberg |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA |
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| Abstract: | Nearly all scenarios for future U.S. energy supply systems show heavy dependence on coal. The magnitude depends on assumptions as to reliance on nuclear fission, degree of electrification, and rate of GNP growth, and ranges from 700 million tons to 2300 million tons per year. However, potential climate change resulting from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may prevent coal from playing a major role. The carbon in the carbon dioxide produced from fossil fuels each year is about 1/10 the net primary production by terrestrial plants, but the fossil fuel production has been growing exponentially at 4.3% per year. Observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased from 315 ppm in 1958 to 330 ppm in 1974 - in 1900, before much fossil fuel was burned, it was about 290–295 ppm. Slightly over one-half the CO2 released from fossil fuels is accounted for by the increase observed in the atmosphere; at present growth rates the quantities are doubling every 15–18 years. Atmospheric models suggest a global warming of about 2 K if the concentration were to rise to two times its pre-1900 value - enough to change the global climate in major (but largely unknown) ways. With the current rate of increase in fossil fuel use, the atmospheric concentration should reach these levels by about 2030. A shift to coal as a replacement for oil and gas gives more carbon dioxide per unit of energy; thus if energy growth continues with a concurrent shift toward coal, high concentrations can be reached somewhat earlier. Even projections with very heavy reliance on non-fossil energy (Neihaus) after 2000 show atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reaching 475 ppm.First presented to the symposium,  Coal Science and our National Expectations , Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Boston, Massachusetts, February 20, 1976. |
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