Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk |
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| Authors: | Trond G Husby Elco E Koks |
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| Institution: | 1.Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL),Den Haag,The Netherlands;2.Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM),VU University Amsterdam,Amsterdam,The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Detailed estimates of economy-wide disaster losses provide important inputs for disaster risk management. The most common models used to estimate losses are input–output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. A key strength of these models is their ability to capture the ripple effects, whereby the impacts of a disaster are transmitted to regions and sectors that are not directly affected by the event. One important transmission channel is household migration. Changes in the spatial distribution of people are likely to have substantial impacts on local labour and housing markets. In this paper, we argue that IO and CGE models suffer from limitations in representing household migration under disaster risk. We suggest combining IO and CGE models with agent-based models to improve the representation of migration in disaster impact analysis. |
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