Correlations between air pollutant emission,logistic services,GDP, and urban population growth from vector autoregressive modeling: a case study of Beijing |
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| Authors: | Xiaopeng Guo Jiaxing Shi Dongfang Ren Jing Ren Qilin Liu |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing,China;2.Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development,North China Electric Power University,Beijing,China;3.Asian Studies Center,University of Pittsburgh,Pittsburgh,USA |
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| Abstract: | Logistics in China has grown rapidly; in 2015, the freight volume has reached 41 billion ton, increasing by 4.4% year-on-year. At the same time, the pollutant emissions from freight cars account for 70% of total emissions of motor vehicles, which severely affected the air quality. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of logistics on air pollution; we used a new methodology based on vector autoregression of freight turnover, gross domestic product, and urban population. We selected Beijing as our test and created a model using time series data for the period 2000–2014. In this model, permanent residents, freight turnover, and SO2 emission were used as proxies for population size, logistic services, and degree of air pollution. Our analyses showed that the expansion of logistic services had the biggest effect on air pollution. Moreover, impulse response analysis revealed that logistic growth caused more serious air pollution over a short time, with an ongoing negative effect. GDP growth was only weakly correlated with air pollution, while urban population growth appeared to have little effect. |
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