Evaluation of Procedures for Prediction of Unconventional Gas in the Presence of Geologic Trends |
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| Authors: | Emil D Attanasi Timothy C Coburn |
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| Institution: | (1) US Geological Survey, National Center Mail Stop 956, Reston, VA 20192, USA;(2) Abilene Christian University, Abilene, TX 79699, USA |
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| Abstract: | This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes
in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally
proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that
compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation
with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the
trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the
presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated
with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the
robustness of both local modeling approaches.
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| Keywords: | Resource assessment nonparametric prediction models continuous gas geologic tends |
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