| 洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架 |
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| 引用本文： | 金菊良,王银堂,魏一鸣,王宗志,刘克琳.洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架[J].水科学进展,2009,20(6):894-900. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金菊良 王银堂 魏一鸣 王宗志 刘克琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 四川, 成都, 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | "十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目，国家自然科学基金资助项目，中国气象局成都高原气象实验室基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于洪水灾害风险管理的背景分析,提出用广义分布函数及其广义熵理论统一描述、物理解析洪水灾害风险管理系统的各种不确定性信息。基于洪水灾害风险形成机制和风险管理理论与水利科学、信息科学、智能科学综合集成途径,提出由洪水灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子危险性广义熵智能分析、承灾体易损性广义熵智能分析、承灾体灾情广义熵智能分析和风险决策广义熵智能分析组成的洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的初步理论框架及其主要研究内容,在其它灾害风险管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水灾害 风险管理 广义熵智能分析 理论框架 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-11-12 |
Theoretical analysis frame based on general entropy and intelligence integration methodology for flood disaster risk management |
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| Institution: | 1.Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China;2.School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;3.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;4.School of Management & Economic, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the background analysis of flood disaster risk management research, the theories of general distribution function and its entropy can be used to effectively describe and analyze the uncertainty information of flood disaster risk management system. Based on the mechanism of producing flood disaster risk and the integration methodology of risk management theory, water conservancy science, information science and intelligence science theories, the theoretical frame and its main contents of the comprehensive analysis theory based on general entropy and intelligence integration methodology for flood disaster risk management are presented, which consists of flood hazard analysis based on the general entropy and intelligence integration methodology, flood disaster vulnerability analysis based on the general entropy and intelligence integration methodology, flood disaster loss analysis and evaluation based on general entropy and intelligence integration methodology, and flood disaster risk decision-making analysis based on the general entropy and the intelligence integration methodology. The frame can also be applied to risk management of other disasters. |
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| Keywords: | flood disaster risk management general entropy and intelligence integration methodology theoretical analysis frame |
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