Initial uncertainties in ‘nuclear winter’: A proposed test based on the dresden firestorm |
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| Authors: | Jan Peczkis |
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| Institution: | (1) Dept. of Earth Science, Northeastern Illinois University, 5500 N. St. Louis Ave., 60625 Chicago, IL, USA |
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| Abstract: | Conclusions An extinction optical depth of 20 is necessary for total darkness (NAS, 1985), although a considerably lower value than that can produce near-total darkness because scattered light does not generate shadows and contrast. It can be seen that the Dresden firestorm smoke cloud, calculated under the conditions usually assumed in nuclear winter calculations, should have resulted in total darkness over a vast area.Using the 500 mb chart, it can be retrodicted that the smoke plume, as part of the counterclockwise circulation about the low over southern Sweden, was over central Poland as dawn broke on the 14th. Indeed, at 9 AM (Table I), smoke from what had been Dresden should have been passing over what had been Warsaw. Depending upon the specific size of the plume at the time, anywhere from a few hundred thousand to over ten million people should have been plunged into darkness.It appears unlikely that such extensive darkening could have gone unreported (especially in the light of the heightened awareness resulting from wartime conditions, and the proximity of the Soviet/German front). This has direct implications for the aforementioned initial uncertainties in nuclear winter. Possible explanations include: (a) Very low smoke emission factors - perhaps even lower than 0.001 (Broyles, 1985); (b) Substantial removal of smoke in the  black rain that followed the firestorm (Irving, 1963, p. 175). Values for prompt smoke removal reaching 90% are not out of the realm of possibility (Schneider et al., 1986; Penner, 1986).The present author is of the opinion that more effort should be expended by students of the nuclear winter phenomenon to learn from WWII mass urban fires. Many eyewitnesses to these events must still be living, and there must be at least some scientifically-useable material in archives. For example, there is a 122-m, 10-min motion film of the Dresden firestorm (Irving, 1963, p. 159). It is in the film archives of the Imperial War Museum. Perhaps some new details of firestorm genesis, spread, etc. could be learned from it. There must be other log books, such as the one of Kraus (1986), which could well yield scientificallyvaluable information. |
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