| 基于集对分析的水资源变化趋势的统计预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯利华,张行才,龚建林.基于集对分析的水资源变化趋势的统计预测[J].水文,2004,24(2):11-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯利华 张行才 龚建林 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江师范大学,地理系,浙江,金华,321004 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省自然科学基金(402034) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据集对分析(SPA)的原理和方法，对水资源变化趋势的预测进行了研究。利用前期的预测因子进行计算，可以使集对分析具有预测功能。通过反复调整预测因子各区段的分界值，可以使水资源要素计算等级和实际等级的历史拟合率达到最大，其结果是比较好的。这是对水资源变化趋势的预测研究的一种新尝试。
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| 关 键 词： | 集对分析 联系度 水资源 变化趋势 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0852(2004)02-0011-04 |
Statistical Forecast of Change Tendency of Water Resources Based on the Set Pair Analysis |
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| FENG Li-hu,ZHANG Xing-cai,GONG Jian-lin.Statistical Forecast of Change Tendency of Water Resources Based on the Set Pair Analysis[J].Hydrology,2004,24(2):11-14. |
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| Authors: | FENG Li-hu ZHANG Xing-cai GONG Jian-lin |
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| Institution: | FENG Li-hua,ZHANG Xing-cai,GONG Jian-lin Department of Geography,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,China |
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| Abstract: | Calculation by means of the previous forecast factors can have the set pair analysis possess the
forecast function. By repeatedly readjusting the limit values of every interval of forecasting factors can maximize
the ratio of the calculated historical conform and the actual grade of water resources element, whose result is
relatively ideal. This is a new attempt on the forecast for the change tendency of water resources. |
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| Keywords: | set pair analysis contact degree water resources change tendency forecast |
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