| 水库调度预报服务风险分析及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 娄伟平,诸晓明,张维祥.水库调度预报服务风险分析及其应用[J].气象科技,2006,34(2):180-183. |
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| 作者姓名： | 娄伟平 诸晓明 张维祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省新昌县气象局,新昌,312500
2. 浙江省绍兴市气象局,绍兴,312000 |
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| 摘 要： | 水库上游入库洪水量是水库风险调度的主要风险因素。根据灾害风险分析原理,对水库调度预报服务存在的风险进行分析,结果表明降水量预报值和径流系数估算值的准确率是影响水库调度预报服务的风险要素,从而在此基础上建立了实用风险分析模型。同时介绍了在0216号台风“森拉克”影响时,该风险分析模型在水库调度预报服务中的应用,并计算了经济效益。该模型对水利部门调度决策有一定的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 水库调度 预报服务 风险分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-11-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-12-13 |
Risk Analysis of Forecasting Service for Reservoir Dispatching and Its Application |
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| Lou Weiping,Zhu Xiaoming,Zhang Weixiang.Risk Analysis of Forecasting Service for Reservoir Dispatching and Its Application[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2006,34(2):180-183. |
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| Authors: | Lou Weiping Zhu Xiaoming Zhang Weixiang |
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| Institution: | 1 Xinchang Meteorological Office, Zhejiang Provinee,Xinchang 312500; 2 Shaoxing Meteorological Office, Zhejiang Province, Shaoxing 312000 |
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| Abstract: | The upstream flood water is the major risk factor of reservoir risk scheduling.According to the principles of disaster risk analysis,the risk of weather forecasting service for reservoir dispatching is analyzed.The results indicate that the veracity of precipitation forecast and stream modulus are the major risk factors of forecasting service for reservoir dispatching.An practical risk analysis model is thus built.The model was used in the forecasting service for reservoir dispatching during the attack of typhoon Sinlaku,and the economical benefit is calculated.The model has proved useful for the decision-making of water conservancy. |
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| Keywords: | reservoir dispatching forecast service risk analysis |
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