Key Deviation Analysis of Initial Fields on Ensemble Forecast in South Chinaduring the Rainfall Event on May 21, 2020 |
| |
| Authors: | LI Ji-hang XIAO Hui DING Wei-yu ZHANG Xu-bin YIN Tian-xiang ZHENG Yan-ping WEN Qiu-shi and LI Hui-qi |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, Guangzhou 510641 China; 2. Guangdong Meteorological Observation Data Center, Guangzhou 510641 China; 3. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, CMA, Guangzhou 510641 China |
| |
| Abstract: | Extreme rainfall is common from May to October in south China. This study investigates the key deviation ofinitial fields on ensemble forecast of a persistent heavy rainfall event from May 20 to 22, 2020 in Guangdong Province, south China by comparing ensemble members with different performances. Based on the rainfall distribution and pattern, two types are selected for analysis compared with the observed precipitation. Through the comparison of the thermal and dynamic fields in the middle and lower layers, it can be found that the thermal difference between the middle and lower layers was an important factor which led to the deviation of precipitation distribution. The dynamic factors also have some effects on the precipitation area although they were not as important as the thermal factors in this case. Correlating accumulated precipitation with atmospheric state variables further corroborates the above conclusion. This study suggests that the uncertainty of the thermal and dynamic factors in the numerical model can have a strong impact on the quantitative skills of heavy rainfall forecasts. |
| |
| Keywords: | ensemble forecast rainfall in south China key deviation initial field |
|
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
