| CoLM 模拟土壤温度和湿度最敏感参数的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李剑铎,段青云,戴永久,叶爱中,缪驰远,狄振华,甘衍军.CoLM 模拟土壤温度和湿度最敏感参数的研究[J].大气科学,2013,37(4):841-851. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李剑铎 段青云 戴永久 叶爱中 缪驰远 狄振华 甘衍军 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875;北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41075075,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2010CB428402 |
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| 摘 要： | 合理的参数估计是提高陆面模式模拟能力的关键,而其过高的维数极大地增加了合理估计的难度。参数的敏感性分析,旨在针对目标变量找出最敏感的参数,从而实现在有限计算机资源条件下,对参数进行合理估计。本文以Common Land Model(CoLM)为研究对象,利用Morris 方法定性地从40 个参数中筛选出影响土壤温度和土壤湿度的敏感参数,并通过Sobol' 方法从敏感性顺序和各敏感参数的累积贡献率两个方面,对Morris 方法分析结果进行验证。在此基础上,本研究还利用Sobol' 方法对已筛选的参数做定量敏感性分析,最终确定参数的主效应、交互效应和总效应。研究结果表明,Morris 方法可以基于少量样本实现复杂的陆面模式的参数筛选,而Sobol' 方法的结果又从定量的角度描述了每个敏感参数对模型响应的影响程度,并且两种方法结论一致。
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| 关 键 词： | 敏感性分析 参数估计 Morris 方法 Sobol' 方法 CoLM |
| 收稿时间： | 5/4/2012 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/8/24 0:00:00 |
A Study of the Most Sensitive Parameters for Simulating Soil Temperature and Moisture of CoLM |
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| LI Jianduo,DUAN Qingyun,DAI Yongjiu,YE Aizhong,MIAO Chiyuan,DI Zhenhua and GAN Yanjun.A Study of the Most Sensitive Parameters for Simulating Soil Temperature and Moisture of CoLM[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,37(4):841-851. |
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| Authors: | LI Jianduo DUAN Qingyun DAI Yongjiu YE Aizhong MIAO Chiyuan DI Zhenhua and GAN Yanjun |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875;College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 |
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| Abstract: | Proper parameter estimation is critical for enhancing the simulation capability of land surface models, yet the high dimensionality of model parameters significantly increases the difficulty of parameter estimation. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters aims at identifying the most sensitive parameters for further analysis in order to estimate the parameters with finite computer resources. In this study, we conducted sensitivity analysis of forty adjustable parameters selected from the Common Land Model (CoLM) using soil temperature and soil moisture data. The Morris method was used to qualitatively screen out the sensitive parameters from the insensitive ones. We also adopted the Sobol' sensitivity method to quantitatively estimate the sensitivity of the screened parameters. The main effect, interaction effect, and total effect of the parameters were computed. The results showed that the Morris method could provide reliable parameter sensitivity analysis using a relatively small sample size, and the Sobol' results provided a quantitative measure how each parameter contributes to the total variance of the model response, which was consistent with the results obtained by the Morris method. |
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| Keywords: | Sensitivity analysis Parameter estimation Morris method Sobol' method CoLM |
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