| 近121 a来土库曼斯坦气温变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 张文娜,刘志辉,姚俊强,闪旭,王元.近121 a来土库曼斯坦气温变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(4):709-716. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张文娜 刘志辉 姚俊强 闪旭 王元 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.新疆大学资源与环境科学学院， 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046； 2 新疆大学教育部绿洲生态重点实验室，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046；3 新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所， 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046；4 干旱半干旱区可持续发展国际研究中心， 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家国际科技合作项目（2010DFA92720-12）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用土库曼斯坦7个代表性气象站的1891-2011年逐月平均气温资料，采用线性回归、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法，研究了土库曼斯坦近121 a来气温变化总体趋势和特征。结果表明：近121 a以来，土库曼斯坦年、四季平均气温均呈上升趋势且多次出现冷暖波动过程，20世纪80年代以后增温尤为明显，其中，秋季增温最为明显；20世纪90年代温度发生由降转升的突变，突变点为1994年，通过了99%显著水平；土库曼斯坦年均气温主要存在55、35和18 a的振荡周期，55 a在时间尺度上的震荡是全时域的，而18 a尺度上的震荡在20世纪30年代以前和80年代以后震荡较强。
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| 关 键 词： | 土库曼斯坦 温度变化 突变分析 小波分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-12-03 |
Air temperature change in Turkmenistan in recent 121 years |
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| Abstract: | Turkmenistan is located in the Eurasian hinterland，which is not only one of most important parts of arid areas in central Asia，but also one of most arid areas in the world. Studying the characteristic of temperature changes and trends are good for the country’s growth and regional development. Using annual and monthly of temperature data of 7 typical meteorological stations in the Turkmenistan from 1891 to 2011，the overall trend and characteristics of climate of the region are researched with methods of linear regression，moving average，Mann-Kendall mutation test，Morlet wavelet analysis. The results indicate as follows: in nearly 121 years，the annual average temperature and mean temperatures of four seasons of the Turkmenistan have rising tendencies with several temperature fluctuation processes; particularly since the 1980s the warming effect is more significant. Among them，autumn warming is most obvious. In the 1990s the temperature breaks from down to up，mutation points is at 1994，which passes the 99% significant level. The annual average temperature of Turkmenistan has 55-，35-，and 18-year period of oscillation. 55-years period in the time scale of turbulence are across full time domain，but the oscillation of the scales of 18 years are stronger at 1930s before and 1980s after. |
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| Keywords: | Turkmenistan temperature change mutational analysis wavelet analysis |
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