| 基于GIS技术的震后泥石流灾害损失耦合预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 耿佳弟,陈五一,赵艳华.基于GIS技术的震后泥石流灾害损失耦合预测方法[J].西北地震学报,2021,43(4):983-988. |
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| 作者姓名： | 耿佳弟 陈五一 赵艳华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川大学锦城学院，四川 成都 611731;2.西南石油大学地球科学与技术学院，四川 成都 610500;3.四川交通运输职业学校，四川 成都 611130 |
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| 摘 要： | 当前预测震后泥石流灾害损的方法所用时间较长,且预测结果误差较大,存在预测效率低和预测准确率低的问题。本文基于GIS技术的震后泥石流灾害损失耦合预测方法,采用GIS技术获取震后泥石流灾害的相关信息,根据获取的信息建立流域水量计算模型、固体物质量计算模型、泥石流起动模型,对泥石流的起动过程进行分析,在财产损失预测模型和人员损失预测模型的基础上构建震后泥石流灾害损失耦合预测模型,实现震后泥石流灾害损失的预测。结果表明:本文所提方法预测效率高、预测准确率高。
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| 关 键 词： | GIS技术 泥石流灾害 损失预测 预测模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/1/23 0:00:00 |
A coupling prediction method of post-earthquake debris flow disaster loss based on GIS technology |
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| GENG Jiadi,CHEN Wuyi,ZHAO Yanhua.A coupling prediction method of post-earthquake debris flow disaster loss based on GIS technology[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2021,43(4):983-988. |
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| Authors: | GENG Jiadi CHEN Wuyi ZHAO Yanhua |
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| Institution: | 1.Jincheng College of Sichuan University, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, China;2.School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China;3.Sichuan Vocational School of Communication, Chengdu 611130, Sichuan, China |
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| Abstract: | There are many problems when using current methods to predict the loss caused by post-earthquake debris flow disasters: long time for prediction, large errors in the results, and low prediction efficiency and accuracy. In this paper, a coupling prediction method for post-earthquake debris flow disaster loss based on GIS technology was proposed. GIS technology was adopted to obtain the information about post-earthquake debris flow disasters. Based on the acquired information, a watershed calculation model, a solid mass calculation model, and a debris flow starting model were established to analyze the starting process of debris flow. Based on the property loss prediction model and personnel loss prediction model, a coupling prediction model of post-earthquake debris flow disaster loss was constructed. The experimental results show that the proposed method has high prediction efficiency and accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | GIS technology debris flow disaster loss forecast predictive model |
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