| 海洋环境数值预报检验方法的探讨与测试 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛可修,张晓娟,刘金芳,梁新友.海洋环境数值预报检验方法的探讨与测试[J].海洋测绘,2012,32(5):70-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛可修 张晓娟 刘金芳 梁新友 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国海洋大学,山东青岛266100;海军海洋水文气象中心,北京100161
2. 海军海洋水文气象中心,北京,100161 |
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| 摘 要： | 对获得的海浪有效波高、海表温度、剖面温度和水位等要素的实测数据以及历史CTD资料,通过对这些数据进行分析和处理,检验WW3海浪、三维温盐流以及MODAS(模块化数据同化系统)等模式的数值预报产品,并设计相应的软件进行各时次的实时比对和旬月统计,自动生成客观的旬月检验报告.为改进预报模式、提高数值预报的准确性和预报产品的使用率提供可靠的依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 数值模式检验 误差统计模型 预报模式 检验报告 |
A Method for Verifying Numerical Forecasts of Marine Environment |
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| MAO Kexiu,ZHANG Xiaojuan,LIU Jinfang,LIANG Xinyou.A Method for Verifying Numerical Forecasts of Marine Environment[J].Hydrographic Surveying and Charting,2012,32(5):70-73. |
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| Authors: | MAO Kexiu ZHANG Xiaojuan LIU Jinfang LIANG Xinyou |
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| Institution: | 1.Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China; 2.Navy Marine hydro-meteorological Center,Beijing 100073,China) |
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| Abstract: | This article analyzes and processes the measured data of the valid wave-height,SST（sea surface temperature）,profile temperature and SSH（sea surface height） and the historical CDT data to verify the numerical forecast products in the patterns of WW3,3D-TSC and MODAS.The related softwares are designed for real-time comparisons four times a day,ten-day and monthly statistics,as well as automatically producing ten-day and monthly verification reports.The method provides the reliable basis to improve the forecasting mode,and increase the accuracy of numerical forecasts and the usage of forecasting products. |
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| Keywords: | numerical model test error statistical model forecast model verification report |
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