| On arable land changes in Shandong Province and their driving forces |
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| 作者姓名： | SHAO Xiao-mei ZHANG Hong-ye |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research，CAS，Beijing 100101，China |
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| 基金项目： | The National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.49971004 |
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| 摘 要： | IntroductionAlmost all the provinces and autonomous regions in China have experienced decrease of arable land in the processes of economic development, population growth and urbanization. The situation is more serious in Shandong Province because of the big population and being an agricultural province. From 1949 to 1999, the arable land was decreased by more than 2 million ha in this province accompanied by rapid population growth. The total population in the province in 1999 was twice of t…
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| 收稿时间： | 11 February 2001 |
| 修稿时间： | 5/8/2001 12:00:00 AM |
On arable land changes in Shandong Province and their driving forces |
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| SHAO Xiao-mei,ZHANG Hong-ye.On arable land changes in Shandong Province and their driving forces[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2001,11(3):329-335. |
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| Authors: | Shao Xiao-mei Zhang Hong-ye |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, |
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| Abstract: | The decrease of total cultivated area and the lower per capita available arable land resource are now serious problems in Shandong Province, a major agricultural province in China. These problems will become more serious along with the further development of economy. In this paper, based on the statistical information at provincial and county levels, the changes of arable land in Shandong Province and their driving forces during the last 50 years are analyzed. The general changing trends of arable land and per capita available arable land are reducing, and the trends of decrease will continue when the economy is developing. The result of GIS spatial analysis shows that the change of the arable land use in Shandong Province has a regional difference. Eight variables having influences on cultivated land change are analyzed by principal component analysis. The results show that the dynamic development of economy, pressure of social system and progress of scientific techniques in agriculture are the main causes for cultivated land reduction. The principal factors which can be considered as driving forces for arable land change include per capita net living space, total population and per ha grain yield. By using regressive equation, along with analysis on population growth and economic development, cultivated areas in Shandong Province in 2005 and 2010 are predicted respectively. The predicted cultivated areas in Shandong will be 6435.47 thousand ha in 2005 and 6336.23 thousand ha in 2010 respectively. |
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| Keywords: | arable land dynamic change driving forces principal component analysis Shandong Province |
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