| 气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张永勤,缪启龙.气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型研究[J].气象学报,2001,59(5):633-640. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张永勤 缪启龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京大学城市与资源学系
2. 南京气象学院环境科学系 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家环保总局科技发展项目（A－95301），加拿大GPIPP，香港基金委员会项目（RGCGrant 97／98
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| 摘 要： | 利用经济学“投入-产出”分析方法的基本原理，结合气候变化对工业影响的统计模型、对 农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统，建立了气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型。研究 了当气候变化对工业、农业部门的生产和产品发生影响时，导致的对国民经济其他部门的拉 动需求量和各个部门间的投入-产出流量的变化，从而预测各个部门的国内生产总值和总产 出量，对２０１０，２０２０年的经济发展。综合分析 气候变化对各部门的影响，找出适应区域经济平衡发展的适应对策，为决策者 提供一些参考建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 投入-产出 工业产值 农业产值 总产出。 |
| 收稿时间： | 2000/2/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年2月29日 |
RESEARCH ON INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON REGIONAL ECONOMY |
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| Zhang Yongqin and Miao Qilong.RESEARCH ON INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON REGIONAL ECONOMY[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2001,59(5):633-640. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Yongqin and Miao Qilong |
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| Institution: | Department of Urban and Resources Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093;Department of Environment Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Using basic theory of economic input-output analysis, sets up an input-output mathematical model to explore the impact of climate change on regional economy. This model combines with the models of climate change on agriculture and industry products.The research provides such a framework for climate impact analysis that can reflect the interactions among different sectors. individual and whole economic sectors. It can illustrate the nature of interrelationships among these economic sectors and between regions,also it incorporates climate change factors into the economic input-output analysis. With regard to natural and social status and economy developing scale and speed, the structure and proportion of the future first, second, third property, coefficients of the model are adjusted, the economic development in 2010.2020 is predicted considering various impacts associated with climate change on agriculture and industry. Then we propose some adaptation countermeasures of climate change to the decision-making department for future developing policy. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Input-output Industry product Agriculture product Total output |
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