| 北京一次冬季极端降水过程中相态转换预报的误差分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡宁,符娇兰,孙军,张峰,胡艺,张亚妮,李晓兰,陶亦为.北京一次冬季极端降水过程中相态转换预报的误差分析[J].气象学报,2021,79(2):328-339. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡宁 符娇兰 孙军 张峰 胡艺 张亚妮 李晓兰 陶亦为 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心，北京，100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（41105030）、国家气象中心预报员专项（Y201906）、国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFF0300104） |
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| 摘 要： | 应用多种常规和非常规观测气象资料以及再分析资料对2020年2月13日夜间至14日白天北京地区一次极端雨雪过程的成因进行了分析,并重点探讨了模式降水相态预报的误差及其原因.结果表明:(1)本次降水过程中,低涡系统深厚,强度异常强,移速慢,影响时间长,导致北京地区部分站点降水持续12?h左右.异常偏强的东南风急流向北京西部...
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| 关 键 词： | 极端降水 降水相态 0℃层高度 模式预报误差 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/6/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/12/14 0:00:00 |
Errors in the forecast of precipitation type transition in an extreme winter precipitation event in Beijing |
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| HU Ning,FU Jiaolan,SUN Jun,ZHANG Feng,HU Yi,ZHANG Yani,LI Xiaolan,TAO Yiwei.Errors in the forecast of precipitation type transition in an extreme winter precipitation event in Beijing[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2021,79(2):328-339. |
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| Authors: | HU Ning FU Jiaolan SUN Jun ZHANG Feng HU Yi ZHANG Yani LI Xiaolan TAO Yiwei |
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| Institution: | 1.National Meteorological Center，China Meteorological Administration，Beijing 100081，China2.CMA-HHU Joint Laboratory for Hydro-Meteorological Studies，Beijing 100081，China |
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| Abstract: | Based on both conventional and unconventional observations as well as reanalysis data, a case study of the mixed rain-snow storm that occurred in February 2020 over Beijing was conducted. This study aims to explore the mechanism for the formation of the extreme precipitation event and analyze errors in the forecast of precipitation type and their possible reasons. The result indicates that: (1) the slow moving of the extremely strong and deep low vortex resulted in the persistent precipitation event that lasted for up to 12 h. The anomalous southeasterly jet transported water vapor to the east of the mountainous area in western Beijing, which, combined with strong vertical shear, formed symmetric instability that was conductive to slantwise convective precipitation with high precipitating efficiency rarely occurring in winter night. The above two factors jointly contributed to this extreme rain-snow event; (2) in the early morning, the 0℃ level height and surface temperature decreased slowly. The cold air mass from Northeast Hebei exerted earlier and stronger influence on eastern Beijing, resulting in lower 0℃ level height and thus earlier rain-snow phase transition there; (3) the influence of cold air mass from Northeast Hebei predicted by the model was earlier and stronger than observations, causing a stable stratiform precipitation in the prediction while convection was significantly weaker than observations. The model predicted surface temperature was lower than observations, and the 0℃ level height decreased more rapidly than observations. As a result, the predicted rain-snow transition occurred earlier with higher snowfall and snow depth. Verification of the model predicted temperature profile against unconventional observations provided helpful information for correcting model forecasting errors in precipitation type transition. |
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