Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity |
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| Authors: | Maha S Quassim Abdel-Fattah Attia Hamdy K Elminir |
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| Institution: | (1) National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), P.O. 11421, Helwan, Egypt |
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| Abstract: | Forecasting solar and geomagnetic levels of activity is essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will
survive for their useful lifetimes. Therefore, amplitudes of the upcoming solar cycles and the geomagnetic activity were forecasted
using the neuro-fuzzy approach. Results of this work allow us to draw the following conclusions: Two moderate cycles are estimated
to approach their maximum sunspot numbers, 110 and 116 in 2011 and 2021, respectively. However, the predicted geomagnetic
activity shown to be in phase with the peak of the 24th sunspot cycle will reach its minimum three years earlier, then it
will rise sharply to reach the 25th maximum a year earlier (i.e., 2020). Our analysis of the three-century long sunspot number data-set suggests that the quasi-periodic variation of the
long-term evolution of solar activity could explain the irregularity of the short-term cycles seen during the past decades. |
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