| 同时改进背景值和初始条件的一种GM(1,1)预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 章重阳,邹亚未,张飞.同时改进背景值和初始条件的一种GM(1,1)预测方法[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2016(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 章重阳 邹亚未 张飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东华理工大学测绘工程学院,江西南昌,330013;2. 海南核电有限公司,海南昌江,572733 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省数字国土重点实验室基金项目(DLLJ201613) |
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| 摘 要： | 传统GM(1,1)模型在背景值和初始条件的选取方面存在不足,为了提高灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度和拟合精度,本文提出了一种同时改进背景值和初始条件选取的新模型,此模型对以往单独对背景值或初始条件的优化进行了改进,将两个影响条件整合到一起。最后通过实例将该新模型与几种模型的拟合和预测数据比较,显示出了新模型的预测精度高。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 背景值 初始条件 精度 预测 |
A Forecast Method of Optimization Integrated Background Value with Original Condition for GM (1, 1) |
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| Abstract: | Traditional GM (1,1) model has some deficiencies in selecting background value and original conditionals .In order to im-prove the prediction precision and fitting precision .In this paper , a new model is proposed that the background value and the original condition of the model are simultaneous optimization .The new model changed the previous way of using only background value or orig -inal condition, integrating two impact conditions .Finally, comparison of the fitting data and forecast data of the model with several models through an example , indicate that the prediction precision of the new model are better than those of the previous model . |
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| Keywords: | grey theory background value original condition precision forecast |
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